Neurocrine Biosciences Shows Again That Sometimes The Tortoise Wins

After a very good 2017, highlighted by the approval and strong initial launch of Ingrezza, Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) has a high bar to make 2018 even better. While a carbon copy repeat of the 100% gain in 2017 is likely too ambitious of a target, Neurocrine should nevertheless benefit from ongoing strength in Ingrezza in tardive dyskinesia, the approval of elagolix in endometriosis, and data on Ingrezza in Tourette's, elagolix in uterine fibroids, and '74788 in CAH before the end of 2018.

All told, Neurocrine is on course to be a four-product, six-indication company in 2022, with the company's drugs primarily addressing large markets with little-to-no strong competition. Although my fair value in the low $90s does not suggest huge undervaluation today, I'm using what I believe to be very conservative approaches to the Tourette's and CAH indications and clinical success in those indications could unlock a lot of value. Accordingly, I still think the risk/benefit balance favors owning these shares.

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Neurocrine Biosciences Shows Again That Sometimes The Tortoise Wins